Greenhouse Gases: Fuel for More Category Fives?   
by E Drummond 

Could a hurricane worse than Katrina come along? According to scientists, the answer is yes: a Category 5 hurricane (Katrina was ranked a 4 when it made landfall in Louisiana). And some experts are broadcasting the message that global warming may be the most obvious—and alarming—culprit. Rising sea temperatures are pure fuel for weather systems on the cusp of becoming hurricanes, and this warmth only magnifies their destructive power. Says one study of 5 climatologists, global warming will contribute to making hurricanes “more destructive than they otherwise would have been.”1 One analysis of 1200 weather simulations concluded that increased greenhouse gases have the potential to triple the number of Category 5 hurricanes.2 The additional threat of sea levels rising has many scientists concerned about significant loss of coastline, severely increased flooding and a new vulnerability of inland areas to destructive hurricanes. If changes in the global climate have some worrying about what the future may hold, others are convinced the damage by greenhouse emissions has already manifest itself. According to Professor Kerry Emanuel, MIT’s hurricane expert, the trend of worsening storms over the past 30 years is “unprecedented … and probably reflects the effect of global warming.”3 Continued stress from emissions on the fragile climatic systems that dictate weather on this planet could lead to “a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses,” says Emanuel. While scientists can’t fix the weather, they urge the adoption of policies which slash emissions and support a continued focus on the development of coastlines protection.


1For further information, visit www.realclimate.org. 2To link the Journal of Climate article, go to: www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf. 3Read Kerry Emanuel’s article “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones Over the Past 30 Years” in the August 4 2005 issue of Nature magazine at: ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.

copyright © 2005 E Drummond 

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